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November 18, 2009

What's at Stake at the 2009 Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London


Big Ben

Continuing our tradition from past year-end Finals, we analyze the players competing in the 2009 Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London.  Everyone who qualified has had a very strong year, but the results of this final tennis tournament of the year matter in different ways for each of them.  In the round robin matches, top-ranked, Roger Federer, will face both U.S. Open champion, Juan Martin del Potro, and Andy Murray, as well as Fernando Verdasco.  In  the other group, second-ranked Rafael Nadal will have to play Novak

Djokovic, Nikolay Davydenko and Robin Soderling.  Nadal has a13-7 record against all the other finalists while Federer has the second-best record at 12-7 followed by Andy Murray at 11-6.  On the end of the end of the charts, Fernando Verdasco has the worst record at 1-12.

So what’s at stake for each of the players listed below (in order of their final standing in the points race for the Tour Finals)?  

Roger Federer – No doubt Roger would like to win the event, end the year on a high and secure the year-end Number One ranking.  In the round robin matches, Federer will need improve on his past record against hometown British favorite, Andy Murray, and avenge his U.S. Open Final loss to Juan Martin del Potro to ensure a strong finish.

Rafael Nadal – Nadal actually still has a chance to end the year Number One if he plays well and other pieces fall into place.  Regardless of the Number One ranking, Nadal needs to re-establish his form going into the off-season because he’s never played his best since returning to the Tour after his spring knee injury.

Novak Djokovic – He’s on a high coming into the Finals having won three tournaments since the U.S. Open and beaten Federer and Nadal along the way.  Djokovic is the defending champion at the Tour Finals so he has a lot of points to defend and he has also played (94) and won (76) more matches than anyone else on the men’s Tour.

Andy Murray – He was many pundits’ pick to win each of the Grand Slams this year, but Murray walked away empty-handed each time.  Andy has shown that he can beat all of the other contenders, but can he beat them all in succession in front of the hometown British fans?

Juan Martin del Potro – The 2009 U.S. Open title catapulted del Potro into another stratosphere and he needs to re-establish his fine form after injuries and lackluster play were the story of his post-Open fall season.  A strong result in the Tour Finals would confirm that del Potro is ready to continue his ascent towards the very top of the rankings.  

Nikolay Davydenko – A heel injury kept Davydenko off the courts in the beginning of the season, but now he still has a chance to finish very strongly by reaching the elite eight AGAIN!  The player who always receives the least attention is clearly capable of challenging the top players and finally seemed to be rounding into form by winning Shanghai.  A title in London might increase his confidence going into 2010 and raise the possibility that he could win a Slam title.  Still a long shot though…

Fernando Verdasco – His impressive play in the 2008 Davis Cup Final carried into the 2009 season where Verdasco reached the semis of the Australian Open narrowly losing to Nadal in five sets.  Reaching the Tour Finals is a huge accomplishment, but can Fernando play well enough to show that he could move even higher in 2010?

Robin Soderling – Reaching the French Open Final appears to have been the launch-pad for Soderling to establish himself in the top ten for the first time.  Having lost to Federer at the French Open, Wimbledon and U.S. Open, Soderling will not have to face Roger until at least the semis in London.  Soderling got in to the Tour Finals when Andy Roddick withdrew with a knee injury, but by playing in London, Soderling has an opportunity to stamp himself as a legitimate member of the elite eight.

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